The stock market has been on quite the tear lately.
April was a phenomenal month off the lows at the end of March.
At the time of this writing late last week, we are already up about 8% halfway through the year, which is not far from the average for an entire year.
Is this pop a reason to sell in May and go away? Since April was so strong, historical data says no. Ryan Detrick has the numbers1:
Should you stop investing now and wait for a pullback? If you recently got a large lump sum, do you just take a wait-and-see approach?
For the sake of argument, let’s just say we are currently at another market top right now.
What does history say about investing at market peaks?
Ready for it? The average annual return even after stock market peaks comes in at 8.8%.
That’s close to the average performance of the stock market overall.
Of course, guessing market peaks is kind of like guessing market bottoms. You only know in hindsight.
Surprisingly, there’s a small statistical case that staying out at all-time highs is scarier than buying in. This holds across 1, 3, and 5-year periods.
The timeframe of when you need to spend your money should be a much more decisive factor in your portfolio decisions than current stock market prices.
If you need help finding or clarifying the purpose of your money, connect with us.
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Source:
1. Published on X on May 6, 2026. Accessed online.