This time of year has been some of the best times to be invested in US stocks.
As the above chart indicates, seasonal 3-month returns have been stellar this time of year.1
Furthermore, investment results have been positive in the past when the Fed has cut interest rates near all-time stock market highs like they did last week. Though this has not happened that often, Carson Investment Research notes that equities have been higher a year out 100% of the time and averaged a 14.3% return.2
If you are focusing on the long-term, stats like the above do not become that important. In fact, even if the opposite were true and short-term returns looked bad based on the current news or seasonality of the moment, it often matters less than it feels in the moment.
Recently, Deutsche Bank came out highlighting how powerful equity returns “across all countries” have been since the 1800s:
History is unambiguous: cash that earns no interest rarely preserves value except over short periods, while equities have consistently delivered the strongest performance for long-term wealth accumulation.3
Think of all that has occurred over the last two centuries of data:
- World War I & II
- Industrial Revolution
- Great Depression in America
- Fall of the Berlin Wall and the End of the Cold War
- Digital Age & Internet Revolution
The real return (after inflation) of stocks exceeds the 60/40 portfolio, bonds, bills, gold, and cash throughout those seismic shifts.
This kind of statistic validates why Nick Murray, an advisor to financial advisors, says “…people greatly overestimate the long-term risk of owning stocks…and much more insidious, people seriously underestimate the long-term risk of not owning stocks.”4
It’s easy in our world to focus supremely on the now because the now is what grabs our attention.
The one who wants to build wealth over the long term will oftentimes have to avoid an appetite for success now and have their investing practices hinged to success over decades in the future.
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Sources:
- Chart taken from Hamilton Lane’s Weekly Research Briefing by Blaine Rollins (October 28, 2025). Accessed online: https://www.hamiltonlane.com/en-us/insight/weekly-research-briefing/weekly-research-briefing-tricks-or-treats
- Chart taken from Ryan Detrick’s X account posted on October 29, 2025. Accessed online: https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1983532996943556883/photo/1
- “Long-Term Asset Return Study - The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing” (October 27, 2025). Accessed online: https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/RI-PROD/PDFVIEWER.calias?pdfViewerPdfUrl=PROD0000000000607211
- Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth (20th Anniversary Edition), p. 58.