The government has been shut down.
Again.
Maybe by the time you read this, it will be back up and running.
Even if it is, this will likely happen again, so you might want to give it a gander anyway and keep reading.
Investors want to know how the stock market has responded in the past to give some context to the present.
On the whole, it’s been pretty much of a nothingburger. Here is the performance of the S&P 500 during government shutdowns since 19761:
Currently, stocks have been fine with it too, as they made new highs last week in the midst of the political spectacle. This led Eddy Elfenbein to quip: “As always, correlation is not necessarily causation, even when it’s funny.”2
Politicians and political parties seem to think this is humorous too, as they have resorted to turning the shutdown into a meme battle.
What in the world are we doing here? Can the adults in the room please stand up?
Back to investing.
Something else may help the stock market out heading into the end of the year—seasonality.
DataTrek noted the following on October 1st:
Even though the S&P 500 is making a new high today, history shows it has significantly higher odds of peaking in December rather than this month (53% versus 9%). With just 3 months left in what has proved to be a winning year, it has even higher chances of topping out in December (75%) rather than this month or next (12.5%).3
Remember: Investing isn’t a game or a gamble, even if some treat it that way.
If you or someone you know needs help cutting through the noise of politics, the memefication of culture, and your infinite social media scroll and how that impacts investing, reach out to us.
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Sources:
1. Tweeted on X on October 2, 2025. Accessed online: https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1973733353754099928
2. CWS Market Review - October 3, 2025.
3. Tweeted on X on October 1, 2025. Accessed online: https://x.com/DataTrekMB/status/1973469500629721589