The stock market hit new all-time highs again last week.
Will the S&P 500 hit 8,000 this year?
Should one take a wait-and-see approach to investing when stocks are high?
Highs don’t mean the market is sitting on the precipice of heading lower.
In fact, forward returns on a 1-, 3-, and 5-year basis have been practically twins whether one invested at all-time highs or on ALL OTHER DAYS.
One of the ways the stock market can go up and still get cheaper is that earnings improve.
And so far earnings have been doing just that—going higher. FactSet confirms this1:
According to Citadel Securities, even with all the AI bubble chatter, information technology as a whole is cheaper than average over the last decade.2
Just because the broad indexes are going up does not mean all stocks are doing well. Some large names—like Netflix and Tesla—have been beaten up badly.
Remember, in bull markets there are losers, and in bear markets there are winners.
Low stocks can go lower, and high stocks can go higher.
Timing can be the central temptation of every investor. Try sticking to a plan over divining the future, because the market can move quickly.
It took 1.4 years to go from 6,000 to 7,000 on the S&P 500.
At the time of this writing, it is around 300 points away from 8,000 only four months after crossing 7,000 for the first time.
Wild.
Since it feels like school will be here sooner than we think, here is an assignment: Why don’t you write down when you think the S&P 500 will cross that 8,000 mark?
How many weeks, months, or years are we away from the next big milestone?
See how your timing works out, Merlin.
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1. “Earnings Insight” July 31, 2026. Accessed online.
2. Scott Rubner of Citadel Securities, “August — After the Reset”, August 03, 2026. Accessed online.